The Ignatieff Factor

As others have mentioned before me, it appears that the Liberals and the Conservatives are in a dead heat right now - according to the latest Strategic Council poll for CTV and the Globe and Mail. The Conservatives' leads has drastically fallen around Canada, including in Western Canada and Ontario.

Of course, the threat of an election has been cast aside for a while, so when asked about an election "tomorrow" respondents are answering in a bubble. But still, those numbers are not encouraging and signify the time for some hard, hard work from the Conservative government - if they hope to make up that lost ground.

CTV explains that having ditched the coalition was probably very beneficial for Ignatieff and the Liberals, and his tone and phrasing about keeping the government "on probation" makes him seem like a tough alternative (unlike lame-duck Dion).

As well, the current economic situation has not helped out the government, who has been left scrambling to provide an acceptable economic plan and has been looking inconsistent in its future projections. Let's not forget the fact that many small-c conservatives have been left with a bad taste in their mouth following the presentation of the budget, which may have them protesting by denying their support (at least in survey form) to the Conservative Party.

What can the Conservatives do at this point? Obviously, Ignatieff is not likely to have himself pushed around like his predecessor. However, he is more open to the government's ideas (or so it has seemed so far). The government will have, I believe, to show the strong leadership it has prided itself on since 2006 - by continuing to move forward and proving that its plan is effective.

There is also a need to lay low for a while, as much as a government can, by focusing on business rather than confrontation. Perhaps Ignatieff will respond to that by putting his foot in his mouth. But the truth is, he is seriously threatening the Conservatives nationally.

Of course, as mentioned earlier this is all happening within a bubble. We would have to see how the Liberal leader runs a national campaign to know if the Ignatieff Factor is going to return Canada's natural governing party back to power.

At this point, I am feeling almost as disillusioned as some of my other fellow conservative bloggers. I am still hanging on to Harper's leadership and the current Conservative Party, but am hesitant in this view. The reason I started being active in supporting this government was because I truly felt the party was moving in the right direction. Not to say that I would vote Liberal if an election were held "tomorrow" but I would have to think twice about the party's accomplishments and forward looking promises before crossing that X in the voting booth.