Canadians confident about the government's economic strategy

The current economic crisis must be drawing to a close as the road to recovery starts with improved confidence. According to a recent poll, Canadians are regaining their confidence and feel the economic slowdown may not weigh on us for very much longer.

A new CBC poll conducted by Ekos Research suggests Canadians are not only optimistic the economy will improve, they believe the federal government will lead the way.

Fifty-nine per cent of those surveyed had some, or complete confidence that Ottawa would be able to lead Canada out of the recession.

Fifty-seven per cent thought the federal budget would be very effective or somewhat effective in stimulating the economy, and 62 per cent had some or complete confidence in the Bank of Canada’s recent economic forecast.

The survey was conducted the between Feb.12-16, 2009, interviewing 1,036 randomly selected Canadians over the age of 18.

Of course, this confidence is partly a gust of wind from the South, with Bank of Canada previsions being based on the relative success of the American stimulus package. Still, some confidence is better than none at all, when all other indicators are still hitting a slump.

The Ignatieff Factor

As others have mentioned before me, it appears that the Liberals and the Conservatives are in a dead heat right now - according to the latest Strategic Council poll for CTV and the Globe and Mail. The Conservatives' leads has drastically fallen around Canada, including in Western Canada and Ontario.

Of course, the threat of an election has been cast aside for a while, so when asked about an election "tomorrow" respondents are answering in a bubble. But still, those numbers are not encouraging and signify the time for some hard, hard work from the Conservative government - if they hope to make up that lost ground.

CTV explains that having ditched the coalition was probably very beneficial for Ignatieff and the Liberals, and his tone and phrasing about keeping the government "on probation" makes him seem like a tough alternative (unlike lame-duck Dion).

As well, the current economic situation has not helped out the government, who has been left scrambling to provide an acceptable economic plan and has been looking inconsistent in its future projections. Let's not forget the fact that many small-c conservatives have been left with a bad taste in their mouth following the presentation of the budget, which may have them protesting by denying their support (at least in survey form) to the Conservative Party.

What can the Conservatives do at this point? Obviously, Ignatieff is not likely to have himself pushed around like his predecessor. However, he is more open to the government's ideas (or so it has seemed so far). The government will have, I believe, to show the strong leadership it has prided itself on since 2006 - by continuing to move forward and proving that its plan is effective.

There is also a need to lay low for a while, as much as a government can, by focusing on business rather than confrontation. Perhaps Ignatieff will respond to that by putting his foot in his mouth. But the truth is, he is seriously threatening the Conservatives nationally.

Of course, as mentioned earlier this is all happening within a bubble. We would have to see how the Liberal leader runs a national campaign to know if the Ignatieff Factor is going to return Canada's natural governing party back to power.

At this point, I am feeling almost as disillusioned as some of my other fellow conservative bloggers. I am still hanging on to Harper's leadership and the current Conservative Party, but am hesitant in this view. The reason I started being active in supporting this government was because I truly felt the party was moving in the right direction. Not to say that I would vote Liberal if an election were held "tomorrow" but I would have to think twice about the party's accomplishments and forward looking promises before crossing that X in the voting booth.

New survey shows Harper inching ahead

The Toronto Star presents results of poll prepared by Angus Reid, which shows that Stephen Harper is slowly increasing his lead over Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff as the best leader for the country.

[The] survey shows 27 per cent of Canadians think Harper is the best choice for prime minister, with 24 per cent preferring Ignatieff.

Last month, the two leaders were in a virtual tie, with Ignatieff slightly ahead at 28 per cent compared with Harper at 27 per cent nationally.

Party support for the Conservatives is also slightly on the rise.

The Conservatives are at 39 per cent support nationally, compared with 30 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP, 9 per cent for the Bloc and 5 per cent for the Greens. In the Oct. 14 election, the Tories garnered 37.6 per cent of the vote.

Finally...

Only 20 per cent of respondents said Ignatieff could manage the economy effectively, compared with 34 per cent for Harper.

Harper still leads 'em in latest poll

The results of the poll, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National in late December, show 43 per cent of Canadians believe Harper would make the best prime minister, compared with 33 per cent who picked Ignatieff and 23 per cent who sided with Layton.

"Ignatieff has at least got people to start thinking a little bit more positively about the Liberal party's leadership," said Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid. "But he's not a game changer, at least at this stage."

Harper's score was down seven points from the last survey, led when Dion was still leader and Ignatieff, who was selected Liberal leader on Dec. 17, was up 13 points from Dion's last tally, explains the Vancouver Sun.

"Is there Ignatieff-mania breaking out across the country? The answer is no," Bricker said. "Harper hasn't crashed and Ignatieff has not taken off."

The prime minister was seen as the most trustworthy federal leader by 38 per cent of those surveyed, unchanged from the last poll.

However, the survey was conducted before Harper appointed 18 new senators on Dec. 22, which may impact any fellow-up results, considering the outcry the Liberals have made regarding they called an "illegal" and "hypocritical" gesture.

Harper outscored his opponents on all leadership questions except when those surveyed were asked to name their choice of "someone who is open to the ideas of others."

Harper fared significantly better than his rivals as someone who will get things done, someone who has what it takes to lead Canada, someone who has a supportable vision of Canada, and someone who is best able to manage during tough economic times.

On managing the economy in challenging times, Harper was the No. 1 choice for 44 per cent of those surveyed, down six points from the last survey, but still well ahead of Ignatieff at 32 per cent, Layton 20 at per cent and Duceppe at three per cent.

The survey also sampled opinion on possible parliamentary politics around the planned Jan. 27 budget. It said seven in 10 of those interviewed said they wanted "the politicians on Parliament Hill to start co-operating so that the budget is passed and we get more stability in Parliament." Three of 10 said that "if the opposition says the budget is insufficient, they should defeat it so we can have an election and clear the air, once and for all."

New poll numbers show Conservative momentum slumping

I do not like where this is going...

A brand new poll prepared by Angus Reid for the Toronto Star shows that while the Conservatives continue to lead the Liberals in voter intentions, their margin has shrunk significantly since last week. Released Sunday, it consulted with 1004 Canadian adults between Dec 11 and 12.

The numbers show that Conservative support has dropped by five points, to 37%, while the Liberals support has risen by nine points to reach 31% in a week. With a 3.1% margin of error, the numbers could be even closer.

This is partly due to the coronation of Michael Ignatieff as new Liberal interim leader, giving the party a bit more bite. Preferred leadership numbers show Harper and Ignatieff neck to neck, sitting at 27 and 28 respectively.

However, Harper does lead Ignatieff on a number of characteristic traits, according to the poll.

While Ignatieff posted significantly higher numbers than his predecessor, Harper continues to dominate as being a strong and decisive leader (45%), an effective economic manager (35%), and a person who understands complex issues (42%).

But 34% said Ignatieff inspired the most confidence, leading both Harper and Jack Layton.

The full survey results can be found here.

Canadians misunderstand political system: Survey

Wellity, wellity... It looks like a recent survey prepared by Ipsos Reid for the Dominion Institute might explain the lack of interest for politics in the general Canadian population: ignorance. I mean, we all could have guessed it, but this put down on paper some of the misses among Canadians when it comes to what's going on in Ottawa.

"Canadians certainly were interested by what was going on in Ottawa, but lacked in many cases the basic knowledge to form informed opinions," said Marc Chalifoux, executive director of the Dominion Institute.

According to the CTV article quoting the survey which asked four seemingly simple questions to respondents, 75 % misidentified our Head of State as either the PM or the GG, when the right answer remains the Queen.

Only 59 % correctly picked constitutional monarchy, when asked to identify our political system. Better than nothing, those number do strongly match voter turn out from the 2008 general election. While 25 % picked a "co-operative assembly," 17 % answered a "representative republic."

How is our PM selected? 51 % wrongly answered that Canadians elect the prime minister directly. But in fact, Canadians elect local members of Parliament and the leader of the party with the most members by tradition becomes PM at the request of the GG.

Finally, and unsurprisingly thanks to recent events, 90 % responded correctly that the GG does have the power to refuse the PM's request for an election, if the opposition defeats the government with a confidence vote in the Commons.

"These questions we're asking aren't just trivia," Chalifoux said. "These are part of the basic tool kit of knowledge that citizens need to function in a democracy. Our school system needs to be doing a better job of training young people to be citizens."

No doubt on that one. Somebody, come and save us from ourselves, quick!

Coalition nightmare fading rapidly

Some delightful poll results from CanWest and Global National yesterday reveal that most Canadians do not want a Liberal-NDP coalition - and even want Ignatieff to vow not to work towards one:

Almost two-thirds of Canadians say they want Michael Ignatieff, the new head of the federal Liberal party, to seek a compromise with Prime Minister Stephen Harper to keep the Conservatives in power instead of joining the New Democratic Party and Bloc Quebecois early in the new year to defeat the minority government, according to the findings of a poll released Friday by Ipsos Reid.

[Five] per cent of those surveyed said they believe Ignatieff should try to find a compromise with Harper, compared with 27 per cent who said they should "stick with the Liberal-NDP coalition." Eight per cent said they didn't know how Ignatieff should proceed.

Poll results also suggest Canadians are so uncomfortable at the prospect of a Liberal-NDP coalition government, backed by the Bloc, that a majority - 56 per cent - would prefer going to the polls again early in 2009 if Gov. Gen. Michaelle Jean is forced to choose between the two options. That number is unchanged from a similar poll conducted last week, prior to Ignatieff's promotion to the Liberal leadership.

The poll also said the Conservative party would garner 45 per cent of the vote and score a majority victory if an election were held today.

Now, if Ignatieff has a shred of common sense, he will look at this result and consider what is best for his political ambition. Bringing down the government on the budget could damage him and the Liberals for a decade, perhaps. I think he will see the same and let Stephen Harper's Conservatives govern.

The Globe and Mail also commented on the fate of the coalition agreement, with no one coming out clearly about if the prospect is still on the agenda or not.

...on the few occasions that Mr. Ignatieff has been pushed to clarify the most central question in all of Canadian politics - is the agreement to bring down Stephen Harper still in force? - the most erudite washing machine in Canadian politics goes into full spin cycle.

And out tumbles yes, no, and maybe as if they were synonyms.

I think that with the change in conviction from coalition members we can safely say that this nightmare won't return to haunt us for a good long while.